Johnny Manziel stinks. The Giants won’t win a game. Andy Dalton is the best QB in football.
We have to be careful not to overreact to the news and developments coming out of the preseason, while at the same time not dismissing red flags that tarnish a players performance on the field.
I will continue to update these as the preseason rolls along and injuries/team identities begin to take shape. In the late round I feel the best strategy is to look for lottery ticket players. Guys who, if the opportunity presents itself, can explode for a Josh Gordon/Alshon Jeffrey-like season due to outstanding talent.
Meaning although Danny Amendola is ranked, even if he stays healthy he isn’t taking your team to a Championship. He is a bye week fill-in type of player. And I wouldn’t stack my bench with many of those players.
Because of this I will have players I like ranked higher than their average ADP in an effort to aggressively target and land them. Conversely, players I don’t like will be ranked lower with the hope that others will take them and push guys I like down the draft board. You can have Steven Jackson at 78.
I do not have kickers and defenses ranked (just because) and these rankings are based on a standard scoring format.
1. RB LeSean McCoy — Explosive talent in a run first offense. Great in the passing game and has a coach that will scheme ways to get him in space. Still only 26 years old.
2. RB Jamaal Charles — Focal point on an offense that will target him extensively in the passing game. QB does just enough to open up space for him to operate in the box. Would have no problem with taking him #1, although the changes on the offensive line bump him down on my list.
3. RB Matt Forte — Huge first year in a new offense that features excellent WRs on the outside to open up space (and block) for Forte. His work as a receiver allows him to remain productive even against great rush defenses.
4. RB Adrian Peterson — At age 29 you have to worry about what AP has left. QB issues don’t help his cause, nor does his mediocre work as a receiver. Still, I still expect the Vikings to give him the ball 20-25 times a game, and that volume can help mask other issues.
5. TE Jimmy Graham — I’m probably higher on Graham than most, but some people forget how badly he was injured last year. Even so, he outscored other TEs by over 40 points. Only Peyton Manning gave you more of a per game advantage by position. Best player by far at footballs weakest position.
6. WR Calvin Johnson — Stafford will continue to force feed his best weapon, and the additions of Ebron and Golden Tate should only help open things up for Megatron. I have no problem with someone picking D. Thomas as the first WR off the board, but Calvin’s track record gives him a slight edge for me.
7. WR Demaryius Thomas — Only slightly behind CJ on my board. Only 26 years old and still learning the position, he offers incredibly ability after the catch and in the red zone. With Manning at the helm and without Decker to grab targets, the arrow is still pointing way up.
8. RB Eddie Lacy — After terrible sophomore seasons from D. Wilson, T. Richardson, D. Martin, L. Miller and such last year, I am a bit hesitant to pick Lacy in the top half of the first round until he proves he can do it in back to back season. People are quick to forget the injury history that dropped him the draft and the concussion he suffered last season. But in that offense and with his goal line ability (and underrated receiving talent), he is worth a 1st round pick. You won’t get him here though.
9. WR Dez Bryant — People who are ranking Dez much higher than this are banking on new OC Scott Linehan being more creative in scheming ways to get Bryant the ball. Last season, there were games where defenses took him completely out of the game. Whether that was scheme or Romo being unwilling to force the ball, it’s enough for me to wait on picking him just a bit.
10. RB DeMarco Murray — Injuries will always be a concern, but new OC Scott Linehan gets his backs the ball out of the backfield, one of Murray’s strengths. That allows him to put up points even if they go down early (that defense is terrible). 6th in points per game last season, and that offensive line should be even better this season.
11. WR AJ Green — His PPG is a tick lower than the elite three, but his talent is right there with them. With a new OC in town I think we will see a more balanced offense, but don’t see his production taking a huge dip. More likely his efficiency goes up. Dalton might not be an elite QB, but if Josh Gordon can be the top WR with Hoyer, Weeden and Co, AJ Green will be just fine.
12. WR Julio Jones — The physical ability is there, but health is a major question mark for Julio Jones. From college to the pros, injuries have always been an issue. However, if he can stay healthy, he is one of the most physically dominant WRs in the NFL with a QB who can still feed him the ball. Word from camp is he has been dominant. If you think he can stay healthy, he is worth the 1st round pick.
13. RB Marshawn Lynch — Assault charges have been dismissed as bogus, and until I hear otherwise the news won’t move the needle. After a brief holdout he returns as the focal point of that offense. Yes, he has a lot of milage and talented players behind him, but he is still the identity of that offense. TDs should be there even if the yards and flashy plays aren’t.
14. WR Brandon Marshall — Jay Cutler is still his QB and these two just love each other. The emergence of Jeffrey only helps and there are plenty of targets to go around. That offense is going to be superb and Marshall will continue to be a focal point.
15. WR Jordy Nelson — Was fantastic last year when Rodgers was healthy, and pretty darn good when he wasn’t. Packers #1 target on an offense that should be nasty. 11th ranked WR last year despite not having Rodgers for 7 games.
16. TE Julius Thomas —Can improve on his TD totals with Decker gone. Heck, he can improve on all his totals, as he is still learning the position. Unreal athletic ability in the leagues most explosive offense. Oh, and have you heard that the TE position is weak?
17. RB Le’Veon Bell — Workhorse runner on a team that still values toughness. Volume player that lacks great talent, and won’t rip off long runs much. But has great hands and an opportunity to run behind an improving O-line. Looked leaner and quicker in preseason, which I liked.
18. WR Randall Cobb — Gets a bump in PPR due to the high volume nature of his role. Was on pace for 110 catches, 1500 yards and 11 TDs after three games last year. Rodgers loves him and with no James Jones or Finley, no reason to think his volume will decrease.
19. TE Rob Gronkowski — Same story as last year. If he’s healthy (huge if), there isn’t a better fantasy player at the TE position than Gronk (and yes, I’m including Graham). His redzone ability is unmatched. His PPG ability will win you games. Practiced in 11 on 11s this week, which is great news.
20. WR Alshon Jeffrey — Finished as the 9th best WR last season despite only 7 TDs, and number he has plenty of room to improve on. With Marshall getting a lot of the attention, Jeffrey can continue to use his outstanding size and ball skills to dominant #2 CBs.
21. RB Montee Ball — Count me as a skeptic (although not much of one since I still have him in the 2nd round). The opportunity is great, but Ball couldn’t beat out Moreno as a rookie. To take an unproven player this high is always a risk. But that offense provides such a unique opportunity. The potential is there for a top 12 season. He also won’t play this preseason due to surgery, and that doesn’t help his stock. Returned to practice this week, which is helpful to see.
22. QB Peyton Manning — You probably won’t get 55 TDs again… but you could. Manning single handily led a lot of mediocre teams to the championship last season, and on a per game basis gave you a 7 point advantage over all opposing players not named Brees.
23. RB Zac Stacy — Became the workhorse in game 5 and didn’t look back. Not an overwhelming talent, but his work as a pass blocker should allow him to hold off T. Mason. New G/T G. Robinson should only help his cause. Volume over flash.
24. RB Giovani Bernard — The opposite of Stacy, Gio offers a ton of flash but questionable volume. With Hill and the Law Firm still looming to steal goal line work, I think Bernard will be inconsistent week to week, but with blowup potential each time he hits the field.
25. RB Arian Foster — Will monitor injuries this preseason, but prior to getting hurt Foster was on pace for over 1900 total yards. With no Ben Tate (or Andre Brown), I expect Foster to be the bell cow both rushing and receiving. The risk is there, but getting him at 22 could be a steal. If injuries linger he will drop. Still hasn’t played, which is becoming a concern.
26. RB Alfred Morris — I’m worried about the loss of the Shannahan’s. Was it Morris or the system? We will find out, but he drops for me. Lack of involvement in the passing game also hurts his value. Olandis Gary was a 1000 yard back in that system. Looked good in week one, however, so I’m not writing him off completely.
27. RB Andre Ellington — Rather have Ellington for a 3rd than Gio in the 2nd. Comparable size to McCoy and Charles, and comparable ability as well. They won’t overwork him, but has RB1 potential.
28. WR Antonio Brown — Small, slow and doesn’t catch a lot of TDs. Not a dominant talent, but saw 166 targets last year and that shouldn’t decline with E. Sanders in Denver.
29. WR Vincent Jackson — Targets will decrease but I expect his efficiency to jump up with the addition of ASJ, Mike Evans and Josh McCown. Dominant in camp and can improve on his 7 TDs. Had no help last year. Tim Wright was the next best pass catching option and Mike Glennon was a 3rd round rookie in over his head.
30. WR Keenan Allen — Got going in week 4 and ended up catching 71 passes in that revamped offense. Still young and developing a report with Rivers, but runs great routes and has great hands. Should keep improving.
31. QB Aaron Rogers — When he’s healthy he has consistently been a top 2 fantasy QB. Perhaps less receiving weapons now than ever with Finley and Jones gone, but an improved O-line and the power running of E. Lacy should help that offense keep churning.
32. QB Drew Brees — Just a fantasy machine, he has ranked in the top 3 at his position the past six years. As consistent as they come, you can plug him in for 14 weeks and not even roster a backup (until the bye week). Addition of B. Cooks only helps.
33. RB Doug Martin — Questions at guard and the addition of both Demps and Sims as 3rd down options lower his value from the unrealistic expectations of 2013. Will still be the feature back on an improved offense. RB1 upside, but boy did that line look terrible last week.
34. RB CJ Spiller — Played hurt for almost the entire year and still looked explosive. Now healthy, he is a gamble, but the upside is top 5 potential. Crowded backfield hurts value.
35. WR Roddy White — He is the reliable target in that offense, and is finally healthy after battling injuries in 2013. Finished the year on a tear after getting healthy. That defense will be atrocious.
36. WR Larry Fitzgerald — Concerns about speed and decline. Still a great red zone target who sees a lot of balls coming his way.
37. RB Toby Gerhart — Could be the workhorse back who hits 300 carries if Jaguars don’t get blown out every week. But is he any good? Remains to be seen. Not a ton of competition to take carries. Todman and Robinson aren’t feature guys and S. Johnson is an unproven rookie.
38. RB Ryan Matthews — Workload concerns in a crowded backfield, and health is always a worry. Finished 12th last season, and that might be his ceiling in that offense.
39. WR Andre Johnson — QB issues are a concern once again, but had 109 receptions last year despite QB woes. Bill O’Brian won’t neglect his best player. Johnson has rarely produced TDs, but we may soon find that it was system related.
40. WR Michael Crabtree — A year removed from the achilles injury, and was on pace for a fantastic year with Kaepernick in 2012 before getting hurt. Crowded depth chart could impact targets, but he has top 10 potential.
41. RB Reggie Bush — Split time with J. Bell last year, so I’m not worried about statistical regression. But his ceiling is limited with Bell getting goal line work and a lot of carries/catches.
42. WR Victor Cruz — No Hakeem Nicks means Cruz becomes the focal point of the passing game. May not be a monster TD guy, but playing the Randall Cobb role in Ben McAdoo’s offense should help him hit 90+ receptions provided he stays healthy. That being said, the offense has looked terrible this preseason.
43. WR Pierre Garcon — Monster targets last year as the team got blown out consistently. They should be better on defense and offense, which means the number of targets will drop. The addition of D. Jackson will also hurt. I think he will be more efficient, but I’m not sure he replicates past success. Struggled to really make an impact down the field last season.
44. RB Frank Gore — Father time probably catches up at some point, but I’m not betting against him just yet. Lead back with a great O-line on a run dominant team. Finished 13th in RB scoring last year. Limited upside.
45. WR Torrey Smith — Remarkebly inefficient throughout his career. Never a great route runner or hands catcher, and Flacco’s wild accuracy and decision making made it just an okay year. Kubiak feeds his top WRs, but Smith is no Andre Johnson. Still, arrow pointing up.
46. TE Jordan Cameron — TE pool really drops off after Cameron. Elite talent at the position with the worst depth.
47. WR Cordarrelle Patterson — Has the measurables of a breakout candidate, but boy is he still raw in the receiving game. The Vikings will manufactures ways to get him the ball, however, and few are more explosive in the open field. Can score from anywhere.
48. RB Shane Vereen — Big bump in PPR, but averaged almost 11 PPG last year when healthy. Backfield touches are an issue, but was on a 11 TD pace last season. Constant mismatch he shouldn’t be as susceptible to the Patriots week to week game planning.
49. RB Joique Bell — 3.9 YPC a bit concerning, even for a guy getting a lot of short yardage work. Splits carries but could get a lot of TDs. Valuable piece, but I want more volume for a top back.
50. WR Marques Colston — A tad inconsistent last season, but had some huge games in the second half of the season as he recovered from a knee injury. Went for 11-144-1 in the playoffs against the vaunted Seahawks. I think he’s underrated.
51. WR Michael Floyd — Room to improve in TDs (5) and a great size/speed prospect. As Fitz declines, Floyd will ascend.
52. WR TY Hilton — Early word has him as the WR1 for the Colts. Wayne is coming off torn ACL, Nicks hasn’t impressed. I’m buying a more open offense with Hilton playing a big role. WR2 with WR1 upside.
53. QB Matthew Stafford — Upgraded weapons should improve his efficiency, even if he throws less. Best of the next “tier” of QBs.
54. TE Jordan Reed — One concussion away from IR, but with the talent deficiency at TE is worth the gamble.
55. RB Stevan Ridley — L. Blount and his 153 carries are gone, and if Ridley can hold onto the ball those are his to lose. J. White hasn’t done much to justify the camp hype, but Ridley has also struggled with fumbles yet again. Situation to monitor.
56. WR Mike Wallace — Misused last year and expect him to have a bounce back year in a new offense with more efficient QB play. Top wideout on that team that will be more creative with how they get him the ball.
57. RB Lamar Miller — Undervalued this year after being way overhyped last year. O-line is a major concern, but he is the lead back and is showing well in camp.
58. RB Ben Tate — West is getting all the hype, but Tate has the edge in experience and pass protection, which can mean a lot early in the season. He scares me though. I’d rather have West at the cheaper price.
59. RB Bishop Sankey — This is lower than his ADP, but it reflects my skepticism of his run talent and ability on the goal line. McCluster could also take much of the passing game reps. Could rise with a strong preseason, but I like his situation more than his ability.
60. WR DeSean Jackson — Inconsistency and redzone targets are the biggest concerns. But a talented player on an offense that should improve dramatically.
61. WR Jeremy Maclin — Desean Jackson is gone and he inherits the role. Tough to have high expectations for players coming off torn ACL, but with his talent and in that offense I have high hopes. Could be a strong WR2.
62. WR Eric Decker — The Geno Smith/Mike Vick QB situation looks rough, and statistical regression is expected. But he is the top target in that offense, and volume counts.
63. RB Chris Johnson — He’s going too high for my taste. Will lose goal line work to Ivory, has a weak offensive line, and the QB situation may have gotten worse. That said, he could get volume, which is a plus.
64. QB Matt Ryan — Threw for 4500 yards and 26 TDs while getting killed behind a terrible line and with limited weapons. White and Jones are healthy, the defense is bad, and the offensive line can’t be worse.
65. WR Kendall Wright — Gets a boost in PPR but is an undersized target who doesn’t attack the deep parts of the field. If Locker is healthy he could still catch 70-80 balls, but upside appears limited.
66. TE Vernon Davis — I don’t expect him to replicate his 13 TDs last season, and with the added targets to that passing attack I expect his volume to be capped. Still a mismatch with his speed, but without TDs he will be an inconsistent play.
67. QB Andrew Luck — I think the Colts will take the reins off him a bit this season, and the supporting cast improves drastically with a healthy D. Allen, the return of Wayne and the development of their young pass catchers. Upside is high if the coaches let him throw.
68. RB Trent Richardson — Last chance to impress, and the Colts will give him that opportunity. Preseason will be telling in terms of his weight/explosiveness. So far, it doesn’t look good.
69. RB Bernard Pierce — Gets 2 starts to prove he can be the guy. Seems to be a great fit for the zone blocking scheme being added, but was terrible last year behind that line. Could run away with the job if he starts hot.
70. QB Cam Newton — He lost all his receivers, but most of them weren’t any good anyway. Adds the massive K. Benjamin and still has the running ability to produce a top 6 season.
71. WR Percy Harvin — Most talented player on that offense, but injuries and volume are major issues. There is upside with Golden Tate gone, but it is hard to imagine him being anything more than a WR3.
72. WR Golden Tate — He may be the 2nd WR, but he isn’t the 2nd option. Upside potential in a system that favors throwing the ball, but limited TD potential with so many monster targets surrounding him.
73. RB Terrance West — Ben Tate is the starter, but he can’t stay healthy. Many scouts and coaches have praised West, and he could take over sooner rather than later. But I’d watch for a RBBC. Still, lots of upside.
74. RB Andre Williams — R. Jennings is the starter and will be drafted ahead of Williams, but I want no part of Jennings. Williams is already getting goal line work, is quicker and a better player. May not work as much in the passing game, and that offensive line is a big question mark.
75. QB Tom Brady — If Gronk is healthy, he bumps up. If not, he is a better real life QB than fantasy option. Lack of a redzone threat will cap his value. This team may be more run dominant to play to their strengths.
76. QB Tony Romo — Dallas might be the worst defense in football and Romo might have the most pass happy coach in the game. They will throw and throw often. The only reason I don’t love him is the back injuries seemingly limiting him in camp.
77. QB Colin Kaepernick — Running the ball is the identity of the 49ers, and I don’t think that changes. But with better weapons and a year of growth Kaepernick has serious upside. We may say that his entire career, though.
78. QB Jay Cutler — He has to stay healthy, but with redzone weapons all over the place and a coach that maximizes his QBs potential, I expect a breakout year. That defense will be bad again and points will be necessary. Could wind up in the top 6 at his position. Great value at his ADP.
79. QB Robert Griffin III — Major breakout potential as he possesses more talent (when healthy) than Andy Dalton, who Jay Gruden turned into a top fantasy QB last year. Key is health, and it is a major question mark. He refuses to protect himself.
80. RB Ray Rice — Suspended for 2 games and doesn’t seem like a great fit for the zone blocking scheme. Were struggles last year injury related? Could be a surprise if healthy, motivated and in better shape (i.e. lighter). He looked quicker in week 1 of the preseason.
81. TE Jason Witten — Don’t expect a top 5 season, but Witten is about as consistent as they come. Won’t win you many games, but won’t lose you many either.
82. WR Kelvin Benjamin — The upside is double digit TDs in an offense devoid of receiving talent. Cam has to throw to someone. Extremely raw, though, and it may take time to develop.
83. WR Emmanuel Sanders — The Peyton Manning factor is always in play, but I tend to think that with all the mouths to feed, Sanders will get lost in the shuffle and post modest numbers. Receiver 4-5 with upside.
84. RB Devonta Freeman — Would love to own him on every team. S. Jackson is already injured and was ineffective last year when healthy. Freeman offers a quickness that can counteract the bad blocking he will see. Arrow pointing way up.
85. QB Nick Foles — This is still a run dominant team that can’t expect Foles to never turn the ball over again. With so many great QBs to chose from I am okay taking a wait and see approach on him.
86. RB Rashad Jennings — Ugh. Current ADP is 43 and I will consistently have him lower than that. Average in every phase, but consistent. Andre Williams has more burst and run talent, but Jennings will factor in early due to his understanding of the pass game. Won’t score TDs.
87. TE Dennis Pitta — Gary Kubiak uses his TEs (especially in the redzone) and Pitta is one of the more talented ones in the league. Could catch double digit TDs.
88. WR Reggie Wayne — Any player coming off an ACL injury is a major risk, especially those on the plus side of 30. Could still be solid in PPR formats, but expect yards and TDs to be limited due to his lack of explosiveness.
89.TE Kyle Rudolph — Lacks the athleticism to be elite, but has the size and opportunity in Norv Turner’s offense to be a solid TE option. Will rise if he shows dropped weight has improved his quickness.
90. WR Riley Cooper —Current ADP is low because people see him as a situational player. But in my opinion he has the talent to be a solid WR2. He has speed, great hands and a QB that trusts him. Better player than people think.
91. WR Rueben Randle — Serious breakout potential as the only tall target on the team. but the coaches don’t seem sold on him, and that has to be concerning. If you are playing him you are banking on TDs.
92. RB Jeremy Hill — TD vulture in a RBBC with Gio Bernard. Could be a week to week fill in, but probably won’t get the volume needed to be consistent. OC Hue Jackson likes power running. That’s Hill’s specialty.
93. WR Wes Welker — One concussion away from being a non factor, I’m souring on him this year. TDs inflated value last year, and the volume won’t be what it once was. Sell.
94. WR Terrance Williams — I still view Williams as a one trick pony with less upside than people think. Great deep threat with okay hands that may not be an every down player. Inconsistent future ahead.
95. WR Justin Hunter — Wrote about his serious upside here. If you are looking for the next Alshon Jeffrey, Hunter might be that guy. Great size/speed combination that coaches are talking up.
96. WR Sammy Watkins — EJ Manuel was not pretty against the Giants and this is still a run first team. WRs rarely develop consistency as rookies, although Watkins has the ability to be one of the outliers. Don’t overdraft on hype.
97. WR Brandon Cooks — The training camp hype train is in full swing with Cooks, but I think we are looking at a better NFL weapon than fantasy option. PPR would give him a boost, but in standard leagues he is splitting targets with some great players. Could rise if the Saints continue to showcase him in preseason.
98. WR Josh Gordon — If the suspension is 8 games this would still be a steal. Top 5 WR talent who has a shot at seeing action this year. A gamble, but one I would consider in round 9.
99. RB Fred Jackson — Old faithful will keep churning out 8-10 points a game with limited touches. But with Spiller healthy and Bryce Brown added, the real life value is probably more than the fantasy value.
100. WR Anquan Boldin — Took advantage of Crabtree’s absence to post great numbers last season, but could be the third option on a run first team this year behind V. Davis and Crabtree. Limited upside.
101. QB Philip Rivers — Another QB I’d be just fine landing. He may not surpass last years numbers, but I see no reason why he can’t replicate them. Another reason why you can wait to draft a QB.
102. WR Julian Edelman — Everyone got hurt last year and he caught a ton of underneath passes. People are healthy this year, and without getting 100+ catches he loses a lot of value in my opinion.
103. WR Dwayne Bowe — Had moments down the stretch but Alex Smith has never made a WR into a consistent fantasy contributor. Not expecting that to change. Will be an inconsistent WR3. Suspended for the first game.
104. TE Zach Ertz — Another breakout candidate on a team that keeps hyping him up, especially as a red zone target. And at 6’5, it’s not hard to see why.
105. TE Greg Olson — We kinda know what he is by now, which is a low ceiling TE1. As literally the only receiver left in Carolina he may get a small boost, but I don’t expect career numbers.
106. QB Andy Dalton — Inconsistently productive last year, but should regress as the team moves to a more balanced attack under Hue Jackson. Not much upside, but could be a good bye week fill in.
107. RB Steven Jackson — Wrong side of 30 with a lot of wear on the tires, Jackson struggled even when he played last year. Not the type of players I generally jump up and down for, starters or not.
108. RB Pierre Thomas — Role continues to diminish with the emergence of K. Robinson, the presence of M. Ingram and the hype of B. Cooks. Not sure where he fits in.
109. WR DeAndre Hopkins — He is probably one year away from being an effective fantasy player, especially with the QB concerns. But if Andre Johnson goes down, he has the talent to produce.
110. TE Ladarius Green — Potential to be the next Julius Thomas/Jimmy Graham/Jordan Cameron type. 6’6 240 and just learning how to play. If he gets unleashed, watch out. Wrote about him here.
111. RB Carlos Hyde — Feature back potential in a run first system with an aging starter in front of him. Could blow up if given the chance.
112. RB Maurice Jones-Drew — I really want no part in drafting him, but if he falls this far I might consider it. Still solid in the passing game and on the goal line, and he did have 800 yards last year in a lost season.
113. WR Kenny Britt — Still only 25 and Bradford could use a #1 target. If he is clued in both mentally and physically he could be in for a bounce back year. Reports are promising.
114. WR Mike Evans — Another rookie with TD potential, but no one is sure how aggressive this offense will be. If they stay balanced his upside is capped without an injury to Vincent Jackson.
115. WR Cecil Shorts — Yes, the rookies have talent and Shorts hasn’t stayed out of the training room, but the guy is talented, experienced and has had his moments. Could be a valuable WR3 if he can get healthy.
116. QB Ben Roethlisberger — 4400 yards and 25-30 TDs is a great season, and that’s probably what you’re going to get. He won’t blow up, but barring injuries he is another consistent QB you can plug in on a weekly basis.
117. RB Robert Turbin — Overlooked as the less talented backup to M. Lynch. And while C. Michael is a more explosive player, Turbin is trusted by his coaches and is no slouch when it comes to ability.
118. RB DeAngelo Williams — This is a team that still loves to run the ball, and he offers flex potential if he stays healthy. That O-line is a mess, however, and a RBBC caps his overall value.
119. RB Danny Woodhead — PPR monster whose value is capped in standard formats. Low upside flex play who likely won’t be on any of my rosters.
120. RB Darren Sproles — In the right system to maximize his talents, but struggled last year as the season wore on and it looks like age might be a factor. PPR bump, but limited value in standard formats.
121. RB James Starks — Fantastic season last year in spot duty, averaging 5.5 YPC. Lacy was an injury risk in college and runs reckless, and Starks is the handcuff to own.
122. RB Knile Davis — Talented back who is a great handcuff to J. Charles (if you like handcuffing). Would blow up if Charles got hurt and has RB1 potential if that were to happen.
123. RB Chris Ivory — Ticketed for goal line work behind Chris Johnson, which gives him some value. However, Ivory’s relentless style will appeal more to Rex Ryan if Johnson continues to shy away from contact.
124. RB Christine Michael — Major upside in the event of a M. Lynch injury. One of the most physically talented backs in the league on one of the most run heavy teams. Lottery ticket stash. Wrote about him here.
125. QB Carson Palmer — He has the weapons and the coach to really put up great numbers. 4500 yards and 25-30 TDs is well within reach, and I expect him to cut down on his INT totals from last year.
126. RB Bryce Brown — Not sure how he gets carries but has dynamic talent if he does. Within the realm of possibility that Spiller gets hurt and Jackson gets old.
127. RB Ahmad Bradshaw — It’s probably a compliment to say that Trent Richardson struggled last year, and with Vick Ballard lost for the season, Bradshaw is next in line if Richardson doesn’t improve. Did well last year before getting injured. Still only 28.
128. RB Roy Helu — Alfred Morris had a great start to his career under the Shanahan system. But that system makes stars out of everyone. If Morris struggles in the new system, Helu has the passing game chops to take the reins.
129. WR Jerricho Cotchery — Mediocre talent who just seems to get open and catch passes. That reliability could make him a top target for Cam Newton. Not a lot of upside, but could be a solid flex play with the right matchup.
130. RB Jonathan Stewart — 27 years old and injured all the time, but he’s the most talented back on the roster. Showed well in OTAs before missing all of camp to this point with a hamstring injury. Situation to monitor, but what a disappointing career for the talented back.
131. WR James Jones — I tend to think Jones is more a product of Aaron Rodgers than a true #1 WR. Could have some solid weeks, but with the attention coming his way I think he disappoints in a mediocre passing attack. Garbage time points could help if the Raiders are as bad as many think they will be.
132. RB Ronnie Hillman —Enters the rankings after the injury to CJ Anderson. Still not sure the team trusts him enough to give him a ton of carries if M. Ball were to struggle or remain injured, but they may not have a choice.
133. WR Kenny Stills — Not much more than a deep threat, so consistency will be an issue. But will put up some good numbers every so often when he gets open for deep TDs.
134. TE Dwayne Allen —Solid rookie season before getting hurt last year. Luck loves throwing to TEs and he is a better all around player than C. Fleener. Could surprise.
135. TE Martellus Bennett — He’s a low upside player who has never been as dominant as he should be. With M. Wilson out for a while his stock takes a jump. Could be great in the redzone, but never has been.
136. WR Greg Jennings — The consistent chain mover in that offense that lacks upside. More quality at the QB position would help, and he is nothing more than a bye week fill in.
137. WR Danny Amendola — If he stays healthy… nah.
138. WR Markus Wheaton — I loved him in the draft and think he has the potential to really surprise people this year. Whether that translates into legitimate fantasy points isn’t clear. I will be watching for preseason chemistry with Big Ben.
139. TE Charles Clay —Breakout year in 2013 and has some upside, but questions about his role in the offense make me wary about drafting him as a TE1. Versatile option, however, in that new offense.
140. WR Miles Austin — When he’s healthy, he has been a good (and even great) player. Perhaps this is the year he stays healthy? With no Josh Gordon early on, they will need him.
141. WR Brian Hartline — Quietly had 1000 yards the last two years, but his upside and potential is pretty limited. Not a bad WR5 if that offense is better and more creative in 2014.
142. WR Jordon Matthews — There is a lot of uncertainty at the WR position for the Eagles, but the team invested a lot in Matthews. Has the chance in the slot to produce more and more as the season goes on.
143. TE Travis Kelce — Kelce continues to show explosive ability this preseason. If you are drafting Gronk or have concerns and want an upside talent at TE, Kelce is a guy to monitor. Alex Smith loves throwing to TEs.
144. RB CJ Anderson —Back at practice after a concussion scare. He is still a guy I would bet on to get the bulk of the carries if Monte Ball fails or misses time.
145. WR Andre Holmes — More explosive and talented than Jones, and thus is the higher upside play. The team could throw a lot if the defense struggles (which it probably will), and Holmes would be a beneficiary.
146. RB James White — The talk of camp, he is a Ridley fumble away from getting some serious play in that offense. Pats tend to ride the hot hand at RB, so if he plays he will still be boom/bust, but the team does love to run the ball.
147. WR Brian Quick — Many WRs make strides in year 3, and Quick has had a great camp. Has the size/speed to really be a great option if he can learn how to be an NFL WR. Upside.
148. TE Eric Ebron — Struggling in camp but has great size and speed for the position in a pass first offense. If he can catch the ball he has some upside, but TEs often start slow.
149. WR Aaron Dobson — The most physically gifted of the Pats WRs, but he hasn’t practiced and might start the season on the PUP list, which would cost him the first 6 games. Upside exists, but he has to get on the field.
150. RB Khiry Robinson — More talented than Mark Ingram, but the coaching staff is stubborn. This will be a RBBC, but Robinson has the most upside of the trio.